{"regime":"Inflationary growth","probs":{"Goldilocks":0.04,"Inflationary growth":0.801,"Disinflationary slowdown":0.04,"Stagflation":0.04,"Credit stress/recession":0.04,"Recovery":0.04},"reasons":["growth positive (GDP 2.1%, payrolls +57k)","growth soft","headline running above core","HY OAS tight (2.71%)"],"signals":{"growthPositive":true,"growthContracting":false,"growthWeakening":true,"inflationHigh":false,"inflationRising":true,"inflationFalling":false,"creditStress":false,"creditTight":true,"yieldCurveInverted":false,"volElevated":false,"volCalm":false},"inputs":{"gdpGrowth":2.1,"payrollsChange":57,"unemployment":4.2,"cpiYoY":3.5,"coreCpiYoY":2.6,"corePceYoY":2.4,"fedFunds":3.625,"twoYear":3.55,"tenYear":4.15,"tenMinusTwo":0.6,"hyOas":2.71,"vix":15.4},"source":"hardcoded-fallback","asOf":"2026-07-17","note":"Static July 2026 snapshot — set FRED_KEY env var for daily updates.","savedAt":"2026-09-09T10:01:27.045Z","version":"v1.0"}