IV term structure curve

Live implied volatility term structure for any liquid US stock or ETF. Shows ATM IV at 7 / 14 / 30 / 45 / 60 / 90 / 120 / 180 DTE. Reveals the market's vol expectations across time horizons and identifies contango (upward-sloping, normal) or backwardation (downward-sloping, stress signal) regimes.

Ticker: Presets:

What is IV term structure?

Term structure is the shape of implied volatility plotted against time to expiration (DTE). For a single ticker at a single point in time, plotting ATM IV at 7d / 14d / 30d / 60d / 90d / 120d / 180d reveals the market's vol expectations across time horizons.

The shape encodes the market's belief about how vol will evolve. Two main shapes matter:

Contango (upward-sloping)

Short-DTE IV is lower than long-DTE IV.
Normal state for most stocks in calm markets. Reflects mean-reversion assumption: vol is currently low but will eventually revert to average.
Typical SPY: 12% IV at 7d, 15% at 30d, 18% at 90d. Slope ~+30% front-to-back.

Backwardation (downward-sloping)

Short-DTE IV is higher than long-DTE IV.
Stress signal. Reflects immediate concern that gets diluted at longer horizons.
Typical trigger: market panic, imminent earnings, FDA decision. Front-DTE IV can 2-3x back-DTE IV in extreme cases.

Reading the slope

The scanner shows several key metrics:

Steepness

Defined as (back_IV − front_IV) / front_IV. Positive steep = contango. Negative steep = backwardation. Typical SPY steepness in calm markets: +25% to +40%. During stress (like Aug 2015, Feb 2018, Mar 2020), steepness went to −30% or more.

Front-30 vs Back-90

A common institutional read is the 30-day vs 90-day spread. When 30d IV significantly exceeds 90d IV, it's a strong signal that the market expects vol to normalize down — often after an anticipated event (earnings, FOMC, election).

How to trade with term structure

Calendar spreads (long back-month, short front-month)

Backwardation is a signal to buy calendars: the front-month you're selling is rich, the back-month you're buying is relatively cheap. If the term structure normalizes back to contango, the front-month IV crushes faster than the back-month and the calendar profits.

Reverse calendars (short back-month, long front-month)

Contango with expected vol expansion is the setup. Rare, but occasionally profitable ahead of anticipated events.

Iron condors and short strangles

Front-DTE IV in extreme contango means you can sell relatively expensive short-DTE premium against relatively cheap long-DTE hedges. Front-month iron condors work well in this regime.

Calendar-spread scanner

The site's Nasdaq-100 Double Calendar Scanner uses term structure to identify tickers with anomalous shapes that support long-calendar entries.

How it's calculated

For each target DTE (7, 14, 30, 45, 60, 90, 120, 180):

Find the actual expiration closest to the target DTE from the option chain.
Fetch the option snapshot for that expiration.
Find the ATM strike (closest to spot).
Average call and put IV at the ATM strike.
Record { targetDte, actual dte, expiration, atmIv }.

Shape classification: contango if (back − front) / front > 0.08, backwardation if < −0.08, else flat. The 8% threshold filters noise while catching meaningful regime shifts.

Frequently asked questions

Why does SPY usually have contango?

Because vol tends to be mean-reverting over longer horizons. When realized vol is currently low (as in calm bull markets), the market prices higher vol for further-out expirations because it expects vol to eventually revert up. When realized vol is currently high (panic), the market expects it to revert down — producing backwardation.

Is backwardation a buy or sell signal?

Neither directly. Backwardation is a vol-regime signal. If you believe the current stress is transitory, buy calendars (long back-month, short front-month) to profit from mean reversion. If you believe backwardation reflects sustained deterioration, avoid short-vol strategies entirely.

How does term structure relate to VIX?

VIX itself has a term structure (VIX futures curve at 1/3/6 months). SPY option term structure aligns with the VIX futures curve because both reflect the same underlying implied volatility. When SPY is in backwardation, the VIX futures curve typically is too.

How does term structure relate to skew?

Both measure asymmetries in IV. Skew measures IV asymmetry across strikes (for a single expiration). Term structure measures IV asymmetry across time (for the ATM strike). Together they define the vol surface. See the Vol Skew Curve for the skew complement.

Related tools

Vol Skew Curve — the strike dimension of the vol surface.
IV Rank Leaderboard — per-ticker vol regime.
Expected Move — ATM straddle at each horizon.
NDX Double Calendar Scanner — uses term structure to identify calendar candidates.
Forward-Factor Calendar Spread — long calendar strategy explicitly gated by term structure.
IV Term Structure glossary — canonical definition.

Data source: Polygon.io options snapshots. Educational only.